最新《学科优质课堂中教学技艺运用的实验2课件PPT.ppt 53页

'《学科优质课堂中教学技艺运用的实验2 OverviewofERMERMisajourney,notaonetimeeventERMisnotjustcompliance,itneedstobeembeddedintheculturetobesuccessfulERMstartsatthetopERMtakesthecommitmentofthemanagementteamERMtakestimetodevelop ThegrowingacceptanceofERMisdrivenbyfourkeyforcesCorporateDisastersEnronWorldComAdelphiaMutualFundsIndustryInitiativesTreadwayReport,USTurnbullReport,UKDeyReport,CanadaBestPracticesBanksAssetManagersEnergyFirmsCorporationsRegulatoryActionsS.E.C.Sarbanes-OxleyBaselIIEnterpriseRiskManagement RatingAgencyandInsuranceCompanyConsiderationsMoody’sandStandardandPoors’nowincorporateriskmanagementassessmentintocreditratingsS&PCommentarybankingandinsurancesectors2yearsagoReportoninsuranceindustrycomingoutsoonLookingattradingriskfortheenergysectorConsideringotherindustries“Companieswhomanageriskeffectivelyshouldreceive“credit”intheratingprocess”Insurancecompanies(D&Ounderwriters)considerratingagencyopinionsUnderwriterslookfavorablytowardcompanieswhoarefocusedonmanagingrisk OneFrameworkforERMCommitteeofSponsoringOrganizationsoftheTreadwayCommission(COSO)PublishedEnterpriseRiskManagement-IntegratedFrameworkin2004COSOhasdefinedERMas…Aprocess,effectedbyanentity’sboardofdirectors,managementandotherpersonnel,appliedinstrategysettingandacrosstheenterprise,designedtoidentifypotentialeventsthatmayaffecttheentity,andmanagerisktobewithinitsappetite,toprovidereasonableassuranceregardingtheachievementofentityobjectives. TraditionalriskmanagementSixstepprocessRiskidentificationRiskanalysisDevelopmentofalternativetechniquestotreatrisksSelectionofbestrisk-treatmenttechniquesImplementationofselectedtechniquesEvaluationandmonitorofeffectivenessofriskmanagement TenkeyquestionstoconsiderWhatisourappetiteforrisk?(capacityandpropensity)Doweknowwhatourrisksare?Doweknowhowthoserisksrelatetooneanother?Whowithinourcompany“owns”thoserisks?Canwemeasurethoserisks?Haveweevaluatednon-traditionalrisks?Doeseveryoneatourcompanyunderstandtheirroleinmanagingrisk?Iseffectiveriskmanagementlinkedtoperformanceevaluations?Isriskconsideredinallfacetsofdecisionmaking?Doesourcompanycontinuallylookforwaystooptimizeriskstrategy? ERMExpandsTraditionalRiskManagementMorefullyintegratesriskmanagementintotheorganization’sstructureERMisaninteractiveprocessnotareactiveprocess EstablishanERMframework–policies,processes,andsystemsManageriskinterdependenciesandaggregationsProviderisktransparencytokeystakeholdersEnsurecompanypracticesmeetorexceedregulatoryrequirementsBalancebusinessandriskrequirements,andavoid“irrationalexuberance”Optimizerisk/returnbyintegratingERMintostrategicplanningandday-to-daybusinessprocessesAttract,retain,anddeveloptalentedriskprofessionalsTheroleofachiefriskofficer(CRO) AnERMframeworkshouldencompasssevenkeybuildingblocks2.LineManagementBusinessstrategyalignment3.PortfolioManagementThinkandactlikea“fundmanager”4.RiskTransferTransferoutconcentratedorinefficientrisks5.RiskAnalyticsDevelopadvancedanalyticaltools6.DataandTechnologyResourcesIntegratedataandsystemcapabilities7.StakeholdersManagementImproverisktransparencyforkeystakeholders1.CorporateGovernanceEstablishtop-downriskmanagement AnERMdashboardshouldaddressfivekeyquestionsforseniormanagementAreanyofourstrategic,business,andfinancialobjectivesatrisk?Areweincompliancewithpolicies,limits,laws,andregulations?Whatriskincidentshavebeenescalatedbyourriskfunctionsandbusinessunits?Whatkeyriskindicatorsandtrendsthatrequireimmediateattention?Whataretheriskassessmentsthatweshouldreview? Casestudy:$1trillionofassetsundermanagementPrivatecompanyDecentralizedbusinesscultureBackground3-YearERMProgramOrganizedGlobalRiskForumImplementedannualGlobalRiskReviewAutomatedlossaccountingDevelopedERMframeworkImplementedintranet-basedGlobalRiskMISExperiencedsignificantreductioninlossratio RiskMetricsRiskEventLogEventLossRootCausesControlsNeededEducationNewassociatesManagementBusiness/OperationalprocessesBestpracticesLessonslearnedGoalMAPActualLossExperience85%DeclineBasicriskmanagementprocessescanleadtosignificantimprovements EconomiccapitalrepresentsacommoncurrencyforriskCreditRiskEarningsvolatilityduetovariationincreditlossesMarketRiskEarningsvolatilityduetomarketpricemovementsOperationalRiskEarningsvolatilityduetochangesinoperatingeconomics(e.g.volume,marginsorcosts)orone-offeventsCreditRiskMarketRiskOperationalRiskProbabilityChangeinValueEnterprise-wideRisk Casestudy:NewcapitalmarketsbusinessTradershiredfromforeignbankAggressivebusinessandgrowthtargetsBackground2-YearERMProgramEstablishedriskpoliciesandsystemsInstilledriskcultureSurvived“Kidder”disasterCaptured25%marketsharewithzeropolicyviolationsRecognizedasbestpractice EngagedseniormanagementandboardofdirectorsEstablishedpolicies,systems,andprocesses,supportedbyastrongriskcultureClearlydefinedriskappetitewithrespecttorisklimitsandbusinessboundariesRobustriskanalyticsforintra-andinter-riskmeasurement,summarizedinan“ERMdashboard”Risk-returnmanagementviaintegrationofERMintostrategicplanning,businessprocesses,performancemeasurement,andincentivecompensationHallmarksofsuccessinERMatGE ERMMetricsYoucannotmanagewhatyoucannotmeasureGoalistomeasureriskonacommonbasis FinancialPerformanceMeasuresReturnonEquity(ROE)OperatingEarningsEarningsbeforeinterest,dividends,taxes,depreciationandamortization(EBITDA)CashFlowReturnonInvestments(CFROI)WeightedAverageCostofCapital(WACC)EconomicValueAdded(EVA) FinancialRiskMetricsReturnonCapital(FinancialServicesIndustry)Risk-adjustedreturnoncapital(RAROC)Returnonrisk-adjustedcapital(RORAC)Risk-adjustedreturnonrisk-adjustedcapital(RARORAC)EconomicIncomeCreatedRisk-adjustedreturn–(Hurdleratexeconomiccapital)ShareholderValueShareholdervalue(SHV)DiscountedvalueofcashflowsShareholdervalueadded(SVA)DiscountedvalueofEVA(EconomicValueAdded) FinancialRiskManagementMetricsInterestRateSensitivityMeasuresDurationandconvexityInterestRateModelsValue-at-Risk(VaR)ParametricMonteCarlosimulationHistoricalsimulationAsset/LiabilityManagement(ALM) ValueatRisk-ADefinitionValueatriskisastatisticalmeasureofpossibleportfoliolossesApercentileofthedistributionofoutcomesValueatRisk(VaR)istheamountoflossthataportfoliowillexperienceoverasetperiodoftimewithaspecifiedprobabilityThus,VaRdependsonsometimehorizonandadesiredlevelofconfidence ValueatRisk-AnExampleLet’susea5%probabilityandaone-dayholdingperiodVaRistheonedaylossthatwillbeexceededonly5%ofthetimeIt’sthetailofthereturndistributionIntheexample,theVaRisabout$60,000 First-IdentifytheMarketFactorsTherearethreemethodstocalculateVaR,butthefirststepistoidentifythe“marketfactors”MarketfactorsarethevariablesthatimpactthevalueoftheportfolioStockprices,exchangerates,interestrates,etc.ThedifferentapproachestoVaRarebasedonhowthemarketfactorsaremodeled MethodsofCalculatingVaRHistoricalsimulationApplyrecentexperiencetocurrentportfolioVariance-covariancemethodAssumeanormaldistributionandusethestatisticalpropertiestofindVaRMonteCarloSimulationGeneratescenariostodeterminechangesinportfoliovalue Basedonthese10lowestreturnsoutof100ofasimulationofassetvalue,whatisthe95%VaR?A)19,536,917B)13,558,569C)11,964,744D)9,975,605E)NoneoftheaboveChangeinAssetValue(19,536,917)(13,558,569)(13,037,674)(12,034,629)(11,964,744)(9,975,605)(8,006,458)(7,776,690)(6,790,814)(6,760,278) CurrentStateofFinancialRiskManagementModelingisusedextensivelyinmeasuringmarketriskInterestratesensitivitymeasuresdependoncashflowmodelsandtermstructuremodelsValue-at-RiskmeasuresalsodependonmodelsDon’tbefooledbyindicatedprecisionofmeasuresUnderstandthemodelsunderlyingthecalculations OperationalandStrategicRiskAnalyticsAnalyticmethodsareprimitiveTop-DownApproachesAnalogsRemoveidentifiablerisksfirstRemainingriskisclassifiedasoperationalriskHistoricallossdataBottom-UpApproachesSelfassessmentCashflowmodel SolvencyRelatedRiskMeasuresProbabilityofRuinShortfallRiskValue-at-Risk(VaR)ExpectedPolicyholderDeficit(EPD)orEconomicCostofRuin(ECOR)TailValueatRisk(TailVaR)orTailConditionalExpectation(TCE)TailEvents PerformanceRelatedRiskMeasuresVarianceStandardDeviationSemi-varianceandDownsideStandardDeviationBelow-target-risk(BTW) ConclusionThereisastandardapproachfordealingwitheachtypeofriskEachareahasitsownterminologyandtechniquesTheERMchallengeistocombinethesedifferentapproachesintoacommonmethodthatcandealwithriskinanintegratedmannerThefirststepistounderstandthedifferentapproaches AcknowledgementsFrankStrenk,LocktonCompaniesJamesLamMarkVonnahme,DepartmentofFinance,UofI What’sNext?Thursday,April26Case3Tuesday,May1CoursesummaryandreviewforthefinalexamFinalExamBoth8:30amand10amsectionsFriday,May4,20078-11am120ArchitectureBuildingConflictexam8-11amMonday,May7–locationTBA 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如何在作文中写好心理描写巧写作文之三： 何谓心理活动？在生活中，我们每当遇到一些事情的时候，心理总会产生一些想法和做法，这就是心理活动。 结合人物的语言行动描写，把人物是怎么想的写清楚，这就是——心理描写 心理描写的方法方法和技巧 一、直接刻画、交待人物心理一般常用“他感到……”、“他觉得……”、“他认为……”、“他思索着……”、“他想起……”等带有标志性的词语来表达。 例1：她（桑娜）忐忑不安地想：“他会说些什么呢？这是闹着玩的吗？自己的五个孩子已经够他受的了……是他来啦？……不，还没来！为什么把他们抱过来啊？……他会揍我的！那也活该，我自作自受。嗯，揍我一顿也好！——《穷人》 二、通过想象描写，表现人物的内心世界这种心理描写方法，常常借助梦境、幻觉，以想象来表现人物内心世界。 例2：《买火柴的小女孩》一文，描写小女孩在饥寒交迫的情况下，擦然一根根火柴产生了幻觉，展现初一幅幅美丽的幻想世界：点燃第一根火柴，仿佛自己坐在大火炉面前；第二根，仿佛看见了烤鹅；第三根，仿佛看到了圣诞树；第四根，仿佛看到了奶奶；点燃一整把火柴，仿佛奶奶把她带到光明快乐的地方去了。 三、通过动作、表情反映人物心理人物的一举一动，都是人物内心世界的外在体现。刻画得好，往往能从侧面表现人物的心理活动。 例3：叙利奥忽然觉得有人用两只发抖的手抱住了他的头，不觉‘呀’的一声叫了起来。——《小抄写员》例4：他（韩麦尔先生）脸色惨白，头靠着墙壁，话也不说……——《最后一课》 四、通过环境描写侧面烘托。一个人在不同的心情时看相同的景物，会产生不同的感受，因为人对使自己心灵产生感应的事物特别敏感，因此人的眼睛能根据自己的心情选择景物，并伴随着强烈的主观感受。 例5：冷风吹进船舱中，呜呜的响，从缝隙向外一望，苍黄的天底下，远近横着几个萧索的荒村，没有一些活气。——鲁迅《故乡》 一、直接刻画、交待人物心理二、通过想象描写，表现人物的内心世界三、通过动作、表情反映人物心理心理描写的方法：｝｝直接描写间接描写四、通过环境描写侧面烘托。 例6：《发试卷》我不停地在心里念叨：“阿弥陀佛，上帝啊，保佑我吧！我再也不上网，不看电视，不打游戏了。唉！都有怪我自己，老想着打游戏，考试前一天还趁父母不在家偷看了一个小时的电视。老师啊，发发慈悲，手下留情，我以后上课一定好好听讲，千万别让我不及格啊！”——直接刻画，交代心理 我好象看见满试卷鲜红的叉组成一张巨大的网向卷来，使我不得动弹，不能呼吸。我又仿佛看到了老师满面的怒容，仿佛听到了父母悲伤的叹息声和旁人的嘲笑声。——通过幻觉表现内心世界 天阴沉沉的，不时刮来阵阵冷风。风刮到我身上，我就不由自主地打颤。教室里静悄悄的，只听见“沙沙”的发试卷的声音，“哗啦！”我的心随之猛跳了一下，一个同学不小心把书碰到了地下。同桌的试卷已发下来了，72分，看着同桌哭丧的脸，我不由得心里直打鼓。——通过环境描写侧面烘托 我用有点颤抖的手去掀试卷，一个鲜红的“4”字映入我的眼帘，我的手一抖，试卷又合上了。我一咬牙，把手伸到试卷底下，用力一翻，随着“啪”的一声，我看到了我的分数──48，可怜的“48”，我“唉”的一声便瘫在了桌上。——通过动作、表情反映人物心理'