最新灰雀课件PPT.ppt 77页

'灰雀 你留心过身边的小鸟吗？你聆听过它们的叫声吗？你知道小鸟也有家吗？让我们跟着列宁，去听一个和灰雀有关的故事吧！新课导入 资料宝袋羽色多样，鸣声悦耳，喜欢群栖在河谷、溪流、树林中，也可以笼养观赏。喜欢吃烨树、榆树、柳树的嫩叶和种子。本文中说的灰雀是红腹灰雀。在我国东北小兴安岭、乌苏里江一带和辽宁、河北等部分地区都能见到。灰雀 笔顺视频点击“笔顺视频”，跟我一起进行笔顺学习吧！字词乐园 宁字词乐园会认字组词：列宁宁静不得安宁nínɡ胸组词：胸脯胸口挺胸抬头xiōnɡ脯组词：胸脯pú 惹字词乐园会认字组词：惹事招惹惹人喜爱rě仰组词：仰望敬仰人仰马翻yǎnɡ渣组词：煤渣豆渣沉渣泛起zhā 字词乐园会认字或组词：或者间或不可或缺huò者组词：或者记者来者不善zhě 字词乐园会认字惜组词：可惜爱惜怜香惜玉xī诚组词：诚实诚信诚心诚意chénɡ 仰望：抬着头向上看。严寒：极冷。欢蹦乱跳：形容健康活泼、无忧无虑的样子。诚实：言行跟内心思想一致。婉转：声音委婉而动听。自然自语：自己对自己说话。字词乐园词语解释 听到一阵（）的鸟叫声，我抬头向树梢（），看到一只（）的小鸟。活蹦乱跳婉转仰望字词乐园词语运用 一三字相同的成语自言自语花开花落古香古色不知不觉大摇大摆无穷无尽词语积累字词乐园 高大---伟岸婉转---悠扬喜爱---疼爱诚实---守信高大---矮小喜爱---厌恶严寒---温暖诚实---虚假宁níng（宁静）nìng（宁可）爷爷宁（nìng）肯生活在农村，也不愿意来城里，因为他喜欢宁（níng）静。近义词反义词多音字字词乐园 小喇叭朗读开始了，点一点音箱，一起听。课文朗读边听边想：课文主要写了什么？课文朗读 课文主要写了一件什么事？课文讲的是列宁教育一个小男孩把灰雀放回树林的故事。初步感知初步感知1 课文可以分成几部分？各部分大意是什么？初步感知初步感知2第一部分（第1自然段）：列宁每天散步都会遇到三只灰雀，十分喜欢。第二部分（第2-10自然段）列宁发现一只灰雀不见了。第三部分（第11-13自然段）灰雀回来了。 从哪里可以看出列宁对灰雀的喜爱？重难点解析重难点1 重难点解析两只胸脯是粉红的，一只胸脯是深红的。样子惹人喜爱 重难点解析列宁每次走到白桦树下，都要停下来，仰望这三只欢快的灰雀，还经常给它们带来面包渣和谷粒。行动流露喜爱 重难点解析一天，列宁又来到公园，走到白桦树下，发现那只胸脯深红的灰雀不见了。他在周围的树林中找遍了，也没有找到。细心观察显示喜爱 你从列宁和男孩之间的对话体会到什么？重难点解析重难点2 重难点解析“孩子，你看见过一只深红色胸脯的灰雀吗？”男孩说：“没……我没看见。”语言描写为什么吞吞吐吐？ 重难点解析列宁说：“一定是飞走了或者是冻死了。天气严寒，它怕冷。”猜测不，不是这样的…… 重难点解析列宁自言自语地说：“多好的灰雀呀，可惜再也飞不回来了。”“会飞回来的，一定会飞回来的。它还活着。”是在自言自语吗？确定 重难点解析列宁问：“会飞回来？”“一定会飞回来！”男孩肯定地说。十分肯定我会把它放了的…… 为什么列宁不直接问小男孩灰雀的下落呢？重难点解析重难点3 重难点解析列宁男孩怕冷吞吞吐吐死了，可惜它还活着循循善诱感染认识错误 灰雀回来了吗？列宁是怎么说的？重难点解析重难点4 第二天，列宁来到白桦树下，果然又看到那只灰雀欢蹦乱跳地在枝头歌唱。那个男孩站在白桦树旁，低着头。重难点解析表示意料之中动作描写我昨天不该把它抓走。 重难点解析列宁看看男孩，又看看灰雀，微笑着说：“你好！灰雀，昨天你到哪儿去了？”列宁为什么这么说呢？喜爱喜鹊爱护孩子 当然，灰雀没有告诉列宁昨天它去哪儿了。列宁也没再问那个男孩，因为他已经知道，男孩是诚实的。重难点解析重难点5“一定会飞回来！” 语言描写语言描写是指人物的独白和对话。本课中，通过对列宁和男孩对话的描写，表现了列宁对孩子的尊重和男孩的天真可爱。含义：通过描写人物的语言，可以形象地表现人物的性格特点，让故事更生动有趣。运用：写作手法 喜爱男孩知错就改板书设计灰雀（惹人喜爱）列宁教育捉放诚实 拓展延伸《世界保护益鸟公约》规定每年的4月1日为“国际爱鸟日”。国际爱鸟日 拓展延伸谁道群生性命微，一般骨肉一般皮。劝君莫打枝头鸟，子在巢中望母归。鸟 1.选词填空。果然（1）妈妈让我带伞，今天（）下雨了。（2）早晨还是晴天，现在（）下雨了。（3）早晨就在下雨，现在（）在下。居然果然居然课堂演练仍然仍然 2.你觉得列宁是个什么样的人？列宁是一位爱动物，也懂得爱护孩子的人。课堂演练3.男孩是个什么样的人呢？天真、可爱、知错就改、诚实 1.观察一下身边的小鸟的样子，用几句话写下来。2.写三条和保护鸟类有关的标语。课下作业 学完课文，一起来听写吧。点我，点我！词语听写 谢谢您的观看和支持 TheNewsvendorModel报童模型 “Toomuch”and“toolittle”costsCo=overagecostThecostoforderingonemoreunitthanwhatyouwouldhaveorderedhadyouknowndemand.Inotherwords,supposeyouhadleftoverinventory(i.e.,youoverordered).Coistheincreaseinprofityouwouldhaveenjoyedhadyouorderedonefewerunit.Cu=underagecostThecostoforderingonefewerunitthanwhatyouwouldhaveorderedhadyouknowndemand.Inotherwords,supposeyouhadlostsales(i.e.,youunderordered).Cuistheincreaseinprofityouwouldhaveenjoyedhadyouorderedonemoreunit. BalancingtheriskandbenefitoforderingaunitOrderingonemoreunitincreasesthechanceofoverage…ExpectedlossontheQthunit=CoxF(Q)F(Q)=Distributionfunctionofdemand=Prob{Demand<=Q)…butthebenefit/gainoforderingonemoreunitisthereductioninthechanceofunderage:ExpectedgainontheQthunit=Cux(1-F(Q))Asmoreunitsareordered,theexpectedbenefitfromorderingoneunitdecreaseswhiletheexpectedlossoforderingonemoreunitincreases. NewsvendorexpectedprofitmaximizingorderquantityTomaximizeexpectedprofitorderQunitssothattheexpectedlossontheQthunitequalstheexpectedgainontheQthunit:Rearrangetermsintheaboveequation->TheratioCu/(Co+Cu)iscalledthecriticalratio.（临界比或关键比例）Hence,tomaximizeprofit,chooseQsuchthatwedon’thavelostsales(i.e.,demandisQorlower)withaprobabilitythatequalsthecriticalratio TheNewsvendorModel:Performancemeasures绩效指标 NewsvendormodelperformancemeasuresForanyorderquantitywewouldliketoevaluatethefollowingperformancemeasures:Expectedlostsales（期望销售损失）TheaveragenumberofunitsdemandexceedstheorderquantityExpectedsales（期望销售）(comparedtoexpecteddemand)Theaveragenumberofunitssold.Expectedleftoverinventory（期望售后剩余库存）Theaveragenumberofunitsleftoverattheendoftheseason.ExpectedprofitExpectedfillrate（期望订单完成率）ThefractionofdemandthatissatisfiedimmediatelyIn-stockprobability（存货满足概率）ProbabilityalldemandissatisfiedStockoutprobability（缺货概率）Probabilitysomedemandislost formulaExpectedsales=m-Expectedlostsalesm:ExpecteddemandL(z):lossfunction(标准正态)损失函数,随机变量超过一个固定值的期望值之和。ExpectedLeftOverInventory=Q-ExpectedSales formulaIn-stockprobability=F(Q)=Φ(z)Stockoutprobability=1–F(Q)=1–In-stockprobability TheNewsvendorModel:Thetargetin-stockprobabilityandthetargetfill-rateobjectivesforchoosingQin-stockprobability：缺货情况，对杂货店较重要fill-rate：多少顾客满足的情况，对目录零售商较重要 ChooseQsubjecttoaminimumin-stockprobabilitySupposewewishtofindtheorderquantityfortheHammer3/2thatminimizesleftoverinventorywhilegeneratingatleasta99%in-stockprobability.Step1:Findthez-statisticthatyieldsthetargetin-stockprobability.IntheStandardNormalDistributionFunctionTablewefindF(2.32)=0.9898andF(2.33)=0.9901.Choosez=2.33tosatisfyourin-stockprobabilityconstraint.Step2:Convertthez-statisticintoanorderquantityfortheactualdemanddistribution.Q=m+zxs=3192+2.33x1181=5944 ChooseQsubjecttoaminimumfillrateconstraintSupposewewishtofindtheorderquantityfortheHammer3/2thatminimizesleftoverinventorywhilegeneratingatleasta99%fillrate.Step1:Findthelostsaleswithastandardnormaldistributionthatyieldsthetargetfillrate.Step2:Findthez-statisticthatyieldsthelostsalesfoundinstep1.FromtheStandardNormalLossFunctionTable,L(1.53)=0.0274andL(1.54)=0.0267Choosethehigherz-statistic,z=1.54Step3:Convertthez-statisticintoanorderquantityfortheactualdemanddistribution.Q=m+zxs=3192+1.54x1181=5011 讨论不足成本大时（毛利高），订购量大于期望需求（关键比例大于0.5）；反之相反。剩余成本可能是可见成本，而销售损失是机会成本，在报表中看不到。剩余成本可能是积压的库存，如未及时清理，造成虚假利润除了利润最大化目标外，很多情况下会选服务水平目标，因为要考虑长期效应。 Assemble-to-order,make-to-orderandQuickResponsewithreactivecapacity按订单装配、按订单生产和以反应性能力快速响应 Thedemand-supplymismatchcostDefinition–thedemandsupplymismatchcostincludesthecostofleftoverinventory(the“toomuch”cost)plustheopportunitycostoflostsales(the“toolittle”cost):Themaximumprofitistheprofitwithoutanymismatchcosts,i.e.,everyunitissoldandtherearenolostsales:ThemismatchcostcanalsobeevaluatedwithMismatchcost=Maximumprofit–Expectedprofit Whenisthemismatchcosthigh?Mismatchcostasapercentofthemaximumprofitwheref(z)=densityfunctionoftheNormaldistribution(InExcelf(z)=normdist(z,0,1,0))Themismatchcostishighwhen(f(z)/F(z))and(s/m)arehigh. LowcriticalratioshighmismatchcostsThemismatchcostishighwhen(f(z)/F(z))ishigh……(f(z)/F(z))ishighwhenthecriticalratioislow: 变差系数反映预测质量，提高预测精确性，可有更高利润。关键比例小的产品，剩余成本高，容易过时的和容易腐败的产品采购少。若残值为零，关键比例即为毛利率，故食堂原材料备料库存少（毛利低，积压成本大），餐厅备料较充分，过期库存多。 不同的不匹配成本与运营管理模式MTS—报童模型不匹配成本为过量或不足，MTS适合于关键比例高、需求变动小MTO—排队系统不匹配成本为生产闲置、顾客排队MTO适合于短途运输、短提前期、机器或劳动力便宜中间状态为使用反应性能力进行快速响应两种反应性能力：第二次订购能力无限但较第一次订购昂贵的反应性能力第二次订购能力有限的反应性能力 SomeU.S.airlineindustryobservationsSincederegulation(1978)137carriershavefiledforbankruptcy.From95-99(theindustry’sbest5yearsever)airlinesearned3.5centsoneachdollarofsales:TheUSaverageforallindustriesisaround6cents.From90-99theindustryearned1centper$ofsales.Carrierstypicallyfill72.4%ofseatsandhaveabreak-evenloadof70.4%. MatchingsupplytodemandwhensupplyisfixedExamplesoffixedsupply:Travelindustries(fixednumberofseats,rooms,cars,etc).Advertisingtime(limitednumberoftimeslots).Telecommunicationsbandwidth.SizeoftheMBAprogram.Doctor’savailabilityforappointments.Revenuemanagementisasolution:Ifadjustingsupplyisimpossible–adjustthedemand!Segmentcustomersintohighwillingnesstopayandlowwillingnesstopay.Limitthenumberofticketssoldatalowprice,i.e.,controltheaveragepricebychangingthemixofcustomers. RevenuemanagementandmarginarithmeticSmallchangesinrevenuecanhaveabigimpactonprofit,especiallyforhighgrossmarginandlownetprofit%industries: EnvironmentssuitableforrevenuemanagementThesameunitofcapacity(e.g.,airlineseat)canbeusedtodeliverservicestodifferentcustomersegments(e.g.,businessandleisurecustomers)atdifferentprices.Highgrossmargins(sothatthevariablecostofadditionalsalesislow).Perishablecapacity(itcannotbestored)andlimitedcapacity(allpossiblecustomerscannotalwaysbeserved).Capacityissoldinadvanceofdemand.Thereisanopportunitytosegmentcustomers(sothatdifferentpricescanbecharged)anddifferentsegmentsarewillingtopaydifferentprices.Itisnotillegalormorallyirresponsibletodiscriminateamongcustomers. RevenueManagement:Bookinglimitsandprotectionlevels预定限额和保留水平 PracticalproblemTheParkHyattPhiladelphiaattheBellevue.118King/Queenrooms.HyattoffersarL=$159(lowfare)discountfareforamid-weekstaytargetingleisuretravelers.RegularfareisrH=$225(highfare)targetingbusinesstravelers.Demandforlowfareroomsisabundant.LetDbeuncertaindemandforhighfarerooms.SupposeDhasPoissondistributionwithmean27.3.Assumemostofthehighfare(business)demandoccursonlywithinafewdaysoftheactualstay.Objective:Maximizeexpectedrevenuesbycontrollingthenumberoflowfareroomsyousell. YieldmanagementdecisionsThebookinglimitisthenumberofroomsyouarewillingtosellinafareclassorlower.Theprotectionlevelisthenumberofroomsyoureserveforafareclassorhigher.LetQbetheprotectionlevelforthehighfareclass.Qisineffectwhileyouselllowfaretickets.Sincethereareonlytwofareclasses,thebookinglimitonthelowfareclassis118–Q:Youwillsellnomorethan118-Qlowfareticketsbecauseyouareprotecting(orreserving)Qseatsforhighfarepassengers.0118QseatsprotectedforhighfarepassengersSellnomorethanthelowfarebookinglimit,118-Q TheconnectiontothenewsvendorAsingledecisionismadebeforeuncertaindemandisrealized.Thereisanoveragecost:IfDQthenyouprotectedtoofewrooms(youunderprotected)……sosomeroomscouldhavebeensoldatthehighfareinsteadofthelowfare.ChooseQtobalancetheoverageandunderagecosts. OptimalprotectionlevelOveragecost:IfDQweprotectedtoofewrooms.D–Qroomscouldhavebeensoldatthehighfarebutweresoldinsteadatthelowfare,soCu=rH-rLOptimalhighfareprotectionlevel:Optimallowfarebookinglimit=118–Q*ChoosingtheoptimalhighfareprotectionlevelisaNewsvendorproblemwithproperlychosenunderageandoveragecosts. HyattexampleCriticalratio:Poissondistributionwithmean27.3:Answer:24roomsshouldbeprotectedforhighfaretravelers.Similarly,abookinglimitof118-24=94roomsshouldbeappliedtolowfarereservations. RelatedcalculationsHowmanyhigh-faretravelerswillberefusedareservation?Expectedlostsales=4.10.Howmanyhigh-faretravelerswillbeaccommodated?Expectedsales=Expecteddemand-Lostsales=27.3-4.1=23.2Howmanyseatswillremainempty?Expectedleftoverinventory=Q-Expectedsales=24-23.2=0.8.Whatistheexpectedrevenue?$225xExp.sales+$159xBookinglimit=$20,166.Note:withoutyieldmanagementworstcasescenariois$159x118=$18,762. RevenueManagement:Overbooking Uglyreality:cancellationsandno-showsApproximately50%ofreservationsgetcancelledatsomepointintime.Inmanycases(carrentals,hotels,fullfareairlinepassengers)thereisnopenaltyforcancellations.Problem:thecompanymayfailtofilltheseat(room,car)ifthepassengercancelsattheverylastminuteordoesnotshowup.Solution:sellmoreseats(rooms,cars)thancapacity.Danger:somecustomersmayhavetobedeniedaseateventhoughtheyhaveaconfirmedreservation. Hyatt’sProblemTheforecastforthenumberofcustomersthatdonotshowup(X)isPoissonwithmean8.5.Thecostofdenyingaroomtothecustomerwithaconfirmedreservationis$350inill-willandpenalties.Howmanyrooms(Y)shouldbeoverbooked(soldinexcessofcapacity)?Newsvendorsetup:Singledecisionwhenthenumberofno-showsinuncertain.UnderagecostifX>Y(insufficientnumberofseatsoverbooked).OveragecostifXYthenwecouldhavesoldX-Ymorerooms……tobeconservative,wecouldhavesoldthoseroomsatthelowfare,Cu=rL.Overagecost:ifX